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深港通的潜在宏观影响展望

深港通已于2016年11月25日宣布启动,市场参与各方都非常关注,特别是其可能产生的宏观影响,更是同时具有理论和实践价值。市场首先容易关注两地市场不同行业的估值差异,在猜测联通之后这种差异是否会缩小。其实,在沪港通启动初期,市场也有许多这样的猜测,当时,沪港通启动之后的市场实际运行,与许多人期望的并不一致,有时还恰好相反,在一段时间内,甚至出现了联通之后价格差异还继续扩大的状况。那么,深港通启动之后,市场的潜在影响会体现在哪些方面呢?
 
从制度设计角度看,深港通可以说是沪港通的一个自然延伸,但是在一些特定的领域又有一些新的突破,除了覆盖的股票范围扩展到深圳市场外,沪港通和深港通的总额度也取消了。从市场参与者角度看,这可以说是非常大的一个制度突破。因为在沪港通项下有总额度的时候,市场投资者经常需要关注总额度的使用进展,常常因为担心在进行资产配置时遇到额度不足的情况,因此,总额度的取消能够吸引不少资金进行中长期配置,也增强了香港市场与上海市场、深圳市场等不同市场之间的联系。
 
一、深港通正在开启港深沪共同市场时代
 
深港通的启动,特别是总额度的取消,实际上把香港市场、上海市场和深圳市场连接成了一个“共同市场”。在沪港通和深港通启动之前,这三个市场原来实际上单独看,在全球的交易所上市公司市值排名中也都在前十位之列,当时在全球范围内比较与一些主要的市场还有一定的差距。但是,取消总限额、并且通过沪港通和深港通连接起来以后,这三家交易所的上市公司市值加起来就是一个70万亿市值的大市场,三个交易所的交易量如果加总起来也是直逼纽交所等全球领先的主要交易所。
 
之所以说沪港通和深港通的启动,加上取消总额度等制度创新,会促成一个新的共同市场的逐步形成,主要可以从两个方面来分析:
 
第一,香港和上海、深圳市场的互联互通,使得整个投资者基础极大地扩张了。在这个大的平台上,市场可面临的投资者既有可能来自于国际,也有可能来自于香港,还可能来自于内地。如果能够进一步把这种二级市场的互联互通延伸到一级市场,这个共同市场对于各个领域的优秀的上市公司就可能会产生非常大的吸引力。
 
第二,不同的交易所通过互联互通,会形成一个优势互补的市场格局,为投资者提供更多的市场选择。如果一个公司要上市,在香港和上海、深圳这三个交易所的互联互通的平台上,现在他面临交易所的选择机会,大家通常会说香港市场的平均估值水平低,但是如果通过细分的行业进行对比就可发现,香港的估值低因为恒生指数里金融和地产等传统周期型行业占比非常高,如果分行业看,有些行业的估值比国内市场的估值还要高,如健康护理等。
 
二、深港通有望启动多元化的市场互动模式
 
沪港通的启动,在很大程度上带有探索性质,投资者熟悉说这个市场也需要时间,因此,从数据上统计,沪港通框架中无论是南下还是北上的资金,其占当地市场的交易量的占比现在还是低的,远远没有达到能够影响主场的交易习惯和市场交易周期的程度。据粗略的统计,沪港通中的南下资金占整个香港市场的交易量占比,从启动到现在通常在0.5%-0.6%,一直到现在3%-5%。中国内地的市场流动性非常充足,所以海外的资金投资上海市场的规模,占上海的交易量的占比更小了,基本上在0.5%-0.9%之间。
 
那么,深港通启动之后,这种状况是否会有所改变呢?深港通启动,也会相应取消总规模限制,积极引入保险资金这些新的投资者,整个市场的互动应该说比原来要活跃。那么,深港通启动之后,会是哪些部分比较活跃呢?沪港通项下,不同投资者的投资偏好有什么变化,我们观察到这个城市的黄金地带,沪港通投资股票的选择也是这样。2015年,内地投资者通过沪港通有61%投资那些大的公司。目前中小型公司实际上被市场研究不足,而且估值价差也比较大。此前,不少的投资者认为上海市场的估值与香港市场的估值有差异,把这两个有差距的中小企业联通之后应该估值会靠近,但是沪港通启动一段时间内,竟然出现了差距拉大的趋势。这就说明,即使沪港通互联互通之后,这两个市场还是按照自己的周期在运转。从数据分析,到了2016年,国内的资金开始转向买大型股,51%是一些大型股,金融占了主导。因为价格差异比较明显,再加上低利率和国内所谓的“资产荒”,还有计算香港的估值足够覆盖相关的保险资金,所以金融机构也相应加大了股票的投入。
 
三、深港通有望推动香港进一步强化其国际金融中心地位,满足居民、金融机构、企业等市场主体进行资产海外配置的需要,助力中国资本市场双向开放
 
当前中国资本市场的开放程度是有限的,这同时也使得中国的市场主体缺少一个高效率的进行海外资产配置的平台,而沪港通和深港通的启动加上交易限额的取消实际构建了这么一个平台。例如,中国保险资金对海外投资的最大额度可以达到15%,但现在保险公司对外投资的规模只占总资产的2%左右。另外,中国已经是世界第二大经济体,国际贸易额更是世界第一,但在国际资本市场以人民币计价的金融产品还很少。所以,中国资本市场的双向开放具有很大的潜力,投资者迫切需要一个可以进行国际资产布局的高效率平台,沪港通、深港通就是这样的平台。
 
从历史脉络上来说,中国资本市场的开放,分为几个阶段。第一个阶段是1993年到2000年,主要方式是国内企业海外上市,其中绝大部分是在香港上市,筹集国际资金进入中国市场。从1993年到现在,国内企业在香港筹集的资金大概有5万多亿港元。第二个阶段是从2001年到2010年,重要进展是引入合格机构投资者,也就是QFII和QDII。其背景是内地资本市场快速发展,股权分置改革取得突破。目前已经进入了第三个阶段,在人民币国际化的大趋势下扩大开放,典型的事例是一些RQFII从二级市场开始转向直接投资。
 
在中国改革开放的过程中,香港抓住了一个机会,成功转型为一个国际型的金融中心。在此之前,在香港上市的基本上都是本地的一些小型公司。随着内地进行改革开放,内地企业希望筹集资金,而国际投资者想进入中国市场,香港抓住了连接东西市场的机会。国际市场的投资者和中国内地的上市公司,在香港市场进行匹配,香港高效率地完成了匹配的功能,从而成为国际金融中心。
 
现在,中国的投资者希望把自己的一部分资产配置到海外市场,而海外金融产品需要寻找新的投资者群体,这就构成了一个资金流 动的新循环。这个新的需求要求香港金融市场把国际市场的各种金融产品都吸引过来,像一个大型金融产品超市,供国内投资者进行挑选。从趋势看,在这样一个金融大超市里,应当既有股票,也有货币和固定收益产品,还有大宗商品。那么,下一步,香港与 内地的连通还需要延伸和拓展,从股票的二级市场延伸到一级市场,从股票市场延伸到货币和固定收益产品,进而延伸到大宗商品。
 
英文原文:
 
Market participants are watching the development of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect closely after the date for its launch was announced on 25 November 2016. Particularly, it should be interesting to see how the programme would have a macro impact on the market, both theoretically and practically. First of all, there will be market speculation on whether the valuation discrepancies between the Hong Kong and Shenzhen markets will narrow after the launch of the programme. As a matter of fact, speculations like these were also plentiful in the early days of the launch of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, but it turned out actual market operations were not exactly what were expected. At times, price discrepancies widened rather than narrowed. Against this background, how should we assess the market impact of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect? 
 
In terms of system design, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect may be seen as a natural extension of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect with new breakthroughs in some areas. Apart from the extension of eligible stocks for trading to Shenzhen listed securities, trading under Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect will no longer be subject to an aggregate quota, a significant change as far as market participants are concerned. Previously, investors of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect were in constant fear of the programme’s quota being used up during their asset allocation when the aggregate quota was in force. Abolition of the aggregate quota will attract medium to long term asset allocation and strengthen connection between the Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen markets.
 
I. Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect opens up an era of Mutual Market between Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen 
 
The launch of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, in particular the abolition of the aggregate quota, will effectively link up the Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen markets into a “mutual market”. Before the launch of the Stock Connect programme, each of the three markets was already among the world’s top ten in terms of market cap, though still lagging some distances behind a few major markets. The removal of the aggregate quota and the linking of the three exchanges will result in a sizable market with a total market cap of $70 trillion and a combined turnover rivaling those of NYSE and other leading major exchanges across the globe.
 
Two aspects could illustrate how the Stock Connect programme and the abolition of the aggregate quota will lead to a mutual market:
 
Firstly, the linking up of the Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen markets will significantly expand the investor base. On such a vast platform, investors may come from overseas, Hong Kong or the Mainland. If connectivity in the secondary market could be extended to the primary market, the appeal to high-quality listing candidates of various sectors will be enormous.
 
Secondly, the three exchanges will complement each other, widening the array of choices for investors. At present, a company planning for flotation has to decide between Hong Kong, Shanghai or Shenzhen. Hong Kong could appear to be at a disadvantage because valuations on average for its listed companies are lower. However, a comparative study of the various sectors would reveal that the lower valuations are mainly a result of domination of the Hang Seng Indexes by heavyweights in traditional cyclical sectors (e.g. finance and properties). Stock valuations of certain sectors, such as healthcare, are actually higher in Hong Kong than in the Mainland.
 
II. Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to trigger diversified market interactions
 
Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is a pilot program that is experimental and exploratory by nature. It takes time for investors to familiarise with it. According to statistics, both southbound and northbound trading under Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect represents a very small percentage of the respective turnovers of the two markets. It is far from being able to affect the trading habits and cycles of the home markets. Southbound trading’s share of total stock market turnover in Hong Kong has been slowly increasing from 0.5-0.6 per cent to the current 3-5 per cent. Foreign funds investing in the Shanghai stock market represent only a meagre 0.5-0.9 per cent of that market’s turnover, given the abundant liquidity in the Mainland.
 
Will Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect change this status? The launch of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect involves the removal of the aggregate quota and actively introducing new types of investors such as pension funds, so more interactions between the markets should be expected after the launch. Which parts of the market are expected to be more active after the launch of the Shenzhen Connect? Let’s look at the change of investors’ preferences under Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. In 2015, 61 per cent of southbound trades invested in large-cap stocks. Research on SMEs has been inadequate and their valuations sharply differed. Interestingly, although many investors thought that SME price differentials between the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets would narrow after the launch of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the gap in fact widened at that time. It showed even with the Stock Connect programme, Shanghai and Hong Kong markets were still operating according to their own cycles and market dynamics. Data showed Mainland funds started to invest in large-cap stocks in 2016. About 51 per cent of the funds were invested in large caps, mostly financial stocks. Given the apparent price differentials, low interest rates, a shortage of investable assets onshore, and Hong Kong market’s depth and liquidity to absorb pension fund investments, financial institutions have expanded their equity exposure.
 
III. Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to help Hong Kong strengthen its IFC role, and facilitate the twoway opening of the Mainland capital market to meet the need for overseas allocation of assets among market participants (investors, financial institutions and business enterprises) 
 
Currently, the Mainland capital market is still highly restricted, which deprives Mainland market participants of an efficient platform for oversea asset allocation. Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, together with the abolition of the trading quota, have effectively created such a platform. For example, insurance companies in the Mainland are now permitted to invest as much as 15 per cent of their funds overseas, though their current foreign investments represent only around 2 per cent of total assets. Furthermore, despite Mainland being the world’s second largest economy and topping the world in international trade, quite few financial products in global capital markets are denominated in RMB. Thus, the potential of the Mainland capital market opening up further is huge. Investors have a compelling need for an efficient platform that allows them to invest and allocate their assets globally.  Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect represent such a platform.
 
Historically, there were several phases in the opening up of Mainland’s capital market. From 1993 to 2000, Mainland enterprises listed overseas, primarily in Hong Kong, to raise international funds. Over HK$5 trillion has been raised in Hong Kong by Mainland enterprises since 1993. Between 2001 and 2010, QFII and QDII schemes were introduced amid rapid development of the Mainland capital market and breakthroughs in the reform of non-tradable shares. Now the opening up of Mainland’s capital market have entered its third stage, and progressing vigorously in the macro trend of the RMB internationalisation. An example is the shift of some RQFIIs from the secondary market to direct investment.
 
In the course of Mainland’s reform and opening up, Hong Kong successfully turned itself into an international financial center (IFC). Previously, companies listed in Hong Kong were basically small local enterprises. The Mainland’s market reform and opening offers Hong Kong the opportunity to serve as a bridge between the East and the West satisfying Mainland enterprises’ desire to raise funds and international investors’ ambition to venture into Mainland. International investors and listed companies from the Mainland were matched in the Hong Kong market. By performing this role efficiently, Hong Kong successfully turned itself into an IFC.
 
Now Mainland investors are looking to diversify their portfolios by approaching the  international markets, meanwhile overseas financial products need new groups of investors, which in turns form a new ecosystem of capital flows. There is a need for Hong Kong to turn itself into a “financial supermarket” where international financial products across various asset classes are displayed for picking by Mainland investors. Equities, fixed income and currency (FIC) products and commodities products should be available for sale in such a financial supermarket. The next step could be the extension of connectivity between Hong Kong and the Mainland markets from the secondary to the primary equity market, and from equities to FIC and then to commodities. (完)
 
文章来源:《香港交易所每月专讯》2016年第23期
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